With David Ortiz out of the lineup, the Red Sox will look to other players to make up for the lack of power.
The Red Sox hope that players such as Will Middlebrooks can help make up for the loss of David Ortiz's bat from the lineup.
David Ortiz missing spring training games is merely a bad sign. David Ortiz missing actual games that count is a real problem. That real problem became a more real possibility on Tuesday morning when CBS Sports' Jon Heyman tweeted that the Red Sox are now hoping Ortiz will be healthy by mid-April.
The most glaring problem that a lack of Ortiz will expose, is a potential lack of power in the Red Sox lineup.
David Ortiz has had six seasons in which he has hit 30 or more home runs. The rest of the projected Red Sox lineup combined has a whopping two seasons of 30 or more round-trippers.
One from Mike Napoli, one from Jacoby Ellsbury and none from everyone else.
Removing Ortiz from the equation could facilitate the early arrival of Jackie Bradley Jr. Even if Bradley turns out to be every bit as good as he's looked this spring, he's not going to be mashing home runs. That's not his game.
Who will feel the most pressure to help fill the void left by Ortiz?
Two players will be expected to try and make up for a projected lack of pop in the lineup:
Mike Napoli and Will Middlebrooks.
In 2011, Napoli hit 30 home runs in only 369 at-bats. Of course he was playing on a Texas Rangers team that had an entire lineup of serious sluggers, and he played his home games in Arlington, Texas where the summer heat helps turn the stadium into a veritable launching pad for baseballs.
Nonetheless, if you had to pick a candidate to be the most feared home run hitter in an Ortiz-less Red Sox lineup, Mike Napoli is your best bet.
Then there's second-year third baseman Will Middlebrooks.
Middlebrooks hit 15 home runs last year, but he did that in only 267 at-bats. Were he to remain healthy for the duration of the 2013 season he'd receive double the number of at-bats. Does that mean he will double his home run totals?
Middlebrooks has the strength to hit 30 home runs, that's not the issue. The real question is how often he makes contact, and how solid that contact is.
The 15 home runs are encouraging but here are two other 2012 stats that should cause concern:
Middlebrooks drew only 13 walks and he struck out 70 times. The Red Sox have always stressed the value of drawing walks and not striking out too much. Last season's squad strayed from that formula. The Red Sox were fifth in the American League in strikeouts and ranked 13th in drawing walks.
With the team trying to get back into the habit of striking out less and drawing more walks it isn't out of the question that a player such as Middlebrooks finds himself hitting home runs at a decreasing rate.
Making contact can mean hitting the ball to the opposite field, but that's generally not a great formula for producing a ton of home runs. Middlebrooks also hit 5 of his 15 home runs on the first pitch. Players looking to cut down on strikeouts and work more walks don't swing at the first pitch all that often.
According to the Boston Globe's Chad Finn, Bill James has projected Middlebrooks to hit 29 home runs in 2013.
That feels a tad optimistic to me, but with Ortiz out of the lineup the Red Sox would be thrilled to see Middlebrooks hit 29 home runs. It is beginning to look like they're going to need every one of them.