By Scott Goldman, National Desk So the beauty of the "First Four" games is that we get nice little warm-up acts before the Big Dance truly begins on Thursday. Like an appetizer before we all sit down to the feast. And thank goodness everyone who runs bracket pools (for entertainment purposes only, of course) lets us all have until...
By Scott Goldman, National Desk
The 2013 Final Four will be held in Atlanta, April 6-8.
So the beauty of the "First Four" games is that we get nice little warm-up acts before the Big Dance truly begins on Thursday. Like an appetizer before we all sit down to the feast.
And thank goodness everyone who runs bracket pools (for entertainment purposes only, of course) lets us all have until Thursday at Noon for our entries. We need every minute.
Here are a few more last-minute guides, and more than a few predictions, as you help perfect your NCAA bracket:
The trends approach: Coaches with previous Final Four experience have won 12 of the past 13 championships. No team has ever won the title after losing its opening-round conference tournament game. A No. 12 seed has defeated a 5 in 22 of the past 24 years. These are just a few of the great trends that Jon Solomon of AL.com points to as critical factors to consider when filling out your bracket, and really helps bring clarity to a few teams' chances (both good and bad).
The scientific approach: Nate Silver (of @fivethirtyeight blog fame) has taken all the research he put into nailing every state correctly in the 2012 election for the New York Times, and put it where it really matters — into predicting the winner of the NCAA Tournament. In a lovely interactive bracket form as well.
Just like the guys in Vegas — and the NCAA selection committee, for that matter — Silver made Louisville the No. 1 seed overall. But Silver put Louisville's chance of winning at 22.7 percent, followed closely by Indiana (19.6) Florida (12.7) Kansas (7.5) and Gonzaga (6.1). Vegas (for those of you who like that kind of thing) has Louisville at 9-2, followed by Indiana at 7-1, and then Duke, Florida and Miami at 8-1.
The simple "secret formula" approach: Here's one I've never seen before. A secret formula to picks your winners. Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report says:
The formula is: (average margin of victory) * (conference RPI). That’s it. All you need are two data points.
It makes sense, though, doesn’t it? Using just average margin of victory swings the early-round odds to teams that just rampaged through a weak conference. On the other hand, just using conference RPI ends up giving you a Final Four of teams from the same conference. And who gets the edge when teams from the same conference play each other?
This formula gives you a happy medium in which teams don’t get overvalued for beating up on weak opponents, nor do they get overvalued for struggling against strong opponents. The national champion should be the team that dominated most regularly against the best teams.
Which teams does that statistic favor this year? It has Indiana beating Gonzaga in the championship with Florida and Louisville rounding out the Final Four.
The event's local organizing committee, chaired by Kim Boyle, is gearing up for the three games and the ancillary events of the weekend with high energy. Boyle, a New Orleans native, said the Women's Final Four is a great addition to the sports repertoire of New Orleans.
"It adds to our reputation as not just a town that supports sports," Boyle said. "Clearly the NFL and any NFL fan knows how committed we are to football and major sports; we have the Hornets and the commitment to pro basketball as well. What’s great about college sports is the student-athletes, and I think many of us relate to a lot of these teams.
"I really admire the level of commitment ... it takes for these ladies to play a whole season then have to turn around and go through the tournament to make it to the championship game."