UMass basketball nuggets: ESPN's Joe Lunardi likes Minutemen

The Minutemen are a No. 12 seed in Joe Lunardi's debut edition of Bracketology. But does it mean anything significant?

The Republican file photoUMass coach Derek Kellogg hopes to be fist pumping all the way to the NCAA tournament in 2013.

I caught up with UMass basketball coach Derek Kellogg to talk about a variety of topics. I'll be posting portions of our conversation in this blog over the next few days, so make sure to look out for it.

But before we get to that, the premier professor of bracketology Joe Lunardi posted his first edition of his predicted 2013 NCAA Tournament bracket Monday, and he has UMass in the field as a No. 12 seed.

Now, before everyone gets excited, I decided to do a little study on the accuracy of Mr. Lunardi's preseason bracket over the past two seasons. I looked at Lunardi's preseason brackets from 2012 and 2011, took all 68 teams and gave Lunardi a point if a team from his preseason bracket actually made the tournament.

Overall Lunardi has been accurate: For the 2012 tournament, he accurate predicted 42 of the 68 teams. In 2011, he was slightly better at 45 of 68.

What's interesting is the breakdown by seed. Both years, Lunardi was 28-for-32 in his top eight seeds (In 2012, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Texas A&M and UCLA let him down, in 2011 it was Baylor, Wichita State, Virginia Tech and Minnesota).

Of importance to UMass: In 2012, Lunardi went 2-for-6 on his No. 12 seeds. In 2011, when there were only five No. 12 seeds, he went 3-for-5. Total that up, it's 5-for-11, or under 50 percent.

I know you were wondering, so here's the complete breakdown for Lunardi over the past two seasons.

The moral of the story? If you're in Lunardi's top eight seeds, you're pretty much a lock. If not, then it really doesn't mean all that much.

The fan expectation level for the 2012-13 edition of UMass seems to be NCAA Tourney or bust. Consider Lunardi on that train as of today.