All eyes, including those of NBA general managers and decision makers, will be on the NCAA Tournament. Here are the players hoping to improve their draft stock.
Andre Drummond, freshman center at UConn, is a very raw, but very talented NBA prospect. Even before fear of the impending lockout began to spread among potential draftees last spring, pro scouts and executives were optimistically eyeing the 2012 NBA Draft, which had the potential to be loaded with size and athleticism. And once the league’s labor strife scared several potential lottery picks back to school, the draft took on even more luster.
“Depending on who comes out, this has the potential to be the best draft in more than five years,” one general manager told Sporting News. “You can go back to ’03, the LeBron James draft. That’s probably the last one that compares.”
There will be stiff competition for the top spots in this draft, and that competition starts in earnest at this time of year—after prospects have built a base and shown their talents for the first four months of the season, it is during the NCAA Tournament, starting Thursday, that draft stock can soar or plummet. There will be plenty of distinct groups to keep an eye on during the postseason.
FIVE WILD ’CATS
What good is an NBA draft if it is not dominated by Kentuckians? For the second time in three years, Wildcats coach John Calipari appears poised to send five players to the NBA as first-round picks, and a sixth, senior guard Darius Miller, could be a second-rounder. Here’s how Big Blue stacks up:
Anthony Davis, F, 6-10/220, Fr.
Projection: Top pick
Scout’s view: “He has elevated himself all year, and I would expect to see more of that. He can dominate with his shot blocking, with his athleticism, with his post game. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he is not the No. 1 pick.”
NBA comparison: Kevin Garnett
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, F, 6-7/232, Fr.
Projection: Picks 5-10
Scout’s view: “If you just watch a little tape on him, you are not going to appreciate what he does for that team. He will defend, he will hit the deck for loose balls, he will make the smart plays. Whatever Cal needs, this guy does. He’s a winner.”
NBA comparison: Danny Granger, Gerald Wallace
Terrence Jones, F, 6-9/252, Soph.
Projection: Picks 12-20
Scout’s view: “His numbers are down, but I think he might actually be a better team player this year. He is taking better shots, he is taking smarter shots, and he is not hanging out on the perimeter quite as much. I would bet he has at least one really big game during the tournament if they make a deep run.”
NBA comparison: Josh Howard, Corey Maggette
Marquis Teague, G, 6-2/189, Fr.
Projection: Picks 15-25
Scout’s view: “There were too many expectations on him coming in, but I think he has handled everything pretty well. He is not Derrick Rose or John Wall or even Brandon Knight, and he is not going to be that pure sort of point guard. But he is strong, he is quick and he can play. If he can win a championship, like Rose or Wall or Knight did not do, his stock will bounce up.”
NBA comparison: Jeff Teague, Devin Harris
Doron Lamb, G, 6-4/210, Soph.
Projection: Picks 15-20
Scout’s view: “Lights-out shooter. He isn’t big enough to guard a lot of NBA two guards, but that’s not as much of a problem as it used to be, not when you have a lot of teams using two point-guard looks and not when you don’t have as many dominant two guards. I don’t know that he is a starter, but with the way he can shoot, he has a place in the league.”
NBA comparison: Jodie Meeks
KILLER WINGS
One thing postseason tournaments have in common with the NBA: It becomes tougher to score. For the top wing candidates, then, this time of year is the perfect opportunity to show they can still do their thing against tighter defense and on a big stage. These guys will soon find that out:
Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut, G/F, 6-5/180, Soph.
Projection: Picks 5-10
Scout’s view: “He was so consistent early in the year, but when things started going bad for UConn, he started launching too many 3s. There’s a lot to like about him—he is long, he is an athlete, he can score—but he needs to play within himself a lot more.”
NBA comparison: Richard Hamilton, Reggie Miller
Bradley Beal, Florida, G, 6-3/207, Fr.
Projection: Picks 5-15
Scout’s view: “The Ray Allen comparison always comes up because Bradley does have such a nice stroke. But don’t forget as good a shooter as Ray is, he created his own shot back in the day. I want to see more of that from Beal. I’ve been a little disappointed he hasn’t developed more.”
NBA comparison: Ray Allen
Austin Rivers, Duke, G, 6-4/200, Fr.
Projected: Picks 5-15
Scout’s view: “Obviously, a gutsy player, and it is hard to find someone to compare him to because of that. He is a guy who you give the ball to when it is time to win or lose, and coaches like that kind of player. Duke relies on him a lot, so they could go as far as he takes them. The farther he takes them, the better it is for him as a draft prospect.”
RAW BIGS
It’s a staple of the NBA draft—league executives become enamored of young guys who have impressive size but need time to develop mentally and physically. Sometimes, it works out (Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, Nene, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Jefferson). Far more often, it does not. But the first step is to get drafted, and these newbies have a good shot at gaining momentum with solid postseason performances:
Andre Drummond, Connecticut, C, 6-10/270, Fr.
Projection: Top five picks
Scout’s view: “The potential is probably too much to pass up because if he really taps into the power game, he could be unstoppable. But I think there would be a lot of people happy to see him go back to school. You see him dominate a game, then disappear.”
NBA comparison: Andrew Bynum, Derrick Favors
Cody Zeller, Indiana, F, 6-11/230, Fr.
Projection: Picks 10-20
Scout’s view: “I don’t think anybody expected him to jump up this fast. He is just so efficient with the ball, he does a lot of the little things, and he is just a winner. He can be the kind of guy who pushes his stock up by being a leader in the tournament.”
NBA comparison: Chris Kaman
Patric Young, Florida, F/C, 6-9/247, Soph.
Projection: Picks 15-25
Scout’s view: “He is a great athlete, there is no question about that, and by all accounts, he is not going to cheat his talent. By that I mean, he is going to work hard to get what he can out of what he has. He will work hard on the glass, he will do what you ask of him. But he is just so raw. He can play defense, but I am not sure what you’ll get out of him offensively.”
NBA comparison: Reggie Evans, Charles Oakley
POLISHED BIGS
If you’re an NBA exec who has been Patrick O’Bryant-ed one too many times, you’re probably going to look for a longer resume—and not be blinded by a tourney flash in the pan—when it comes to choosing your big men. This draft will have plenty of upperclassmen with size, and March will be a good time for them to put the finishing touches on their NBA applications:
Thomas Robinson, Kansas, F, 6-10/237, Jr.
Projection: Picks 4-8
Scout’s view: “Really likable guy, so it is rewarding to watch him have the kind of success he has had. I don’t think anyone saw the kind of year he is having coming. He attacks the rim, he is smart, he moves without the ball. He made such a big leap this year, the tournament can be a way to prove his numbers.”
NBA comparison: Carlos Boozer
Tyler Zeller, North Carolina, F, 7-0/250, Sr.
Projection: Picks 10-17
Scout’s view: “Very consistent, just gets better every year. He is ready to play in the NBA now; he is fundamentally sound.”
NBA comparison: Jamaal Magloire
Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt, C, 6-11, Sr.
Projection: Picks 20-30
Scout’s view: “The knee injury to start the year, that hurt him. His numbers and his conditioning, all of that suffered. But he has fought through it and there’s no question he can be an NBA contributor. A good tournament would help him.”
NBA comparison: Emeka Okafor
RETURN ENGAGEMENTS
Last year, they were freshman phenoms, each with a shot at being the No. 1 pick. All three passed up the chance, though, and now that the draft competition is a little stiffer, earning the top spot is probably out of reach. Still, there is much at stake at tourney time:
Jared Sullinger, Ohio State, F, 6-9/265, Soph.
Projection: Top five picks
Scout’s view: “I don’t know that he has anything left to prove. He’s got such a developed post game. You always get 100 percent from him. He is smart, he is tough, he rebounds, he defends, and he probably would have been the No. 1 or 2 pick if he had come out last year. Whatever he gives up in size, he makes up in toughness and effort.”
NBA comparison: Elton Brand
Harrison Barnes, North Carolina, F, 6-8/215, Soph.
Projection: Top five picks
Scout’s view: “What a shooter he has become. He should be a very good scorer on the next level, maybe an All-Star-level scorer. Very smooth game. He doesn’t necessarily create for himself, but put him with a good point guard and he’ll be excellent.”
NBA comparison: Glen Rice, Wilson Chandler
Perry Jones III, Baylor, F, 6-11/235, Soph.
Projection: Picks 5-15
Scout’s view: “Their last handful of games, he has gotten it together. He can look so passive sometimes, that is what worries you. But he has played great as the pressure has gone up lately, and if carries that through the tournament, it is going to change some perceptions about him. I would say he has as much at stake in this tournament as anyone.”
NBA comparison: Anthony Randolph