The Celtics don't consider themselves underdogs. But can we possibly know what to expect from them?
Boston Celtics head coach Doc Rivers didn't need many words to explain what he learned during Wednesday night's regular season finale:
"Nothing."
In fact, Boston revealed little of itself during the final month. We know so little about this group:
Can it stay healthy enough? Can it overcome the loss of Rajon Rondo, which should especially hurt against postseason defenses? Does Boston have enough size? Ball-handling? Can it return to elite defense to compensate for what has -- for years -- been a below-average offense? Is another exciting, long playoff run a possibility?
It seems there are three mentalities a Celtics fan might have entering the playoffs:
1. The Celtics will be a tough out come playoff time because they are always a tough out come playoff time.
Despite Rondo's injury and the fact that only four Celtics (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Avery Bradley and Brandon Bass) suited up for the team last postseason, you could trust ancient history. And you would have at least some basis to stand on: Boston's defense, always the reason it's been so tough in the playoffs, has been elite this season with neither Garnett or Bradley injured. Doc Rivers can normally steal a win or two in the postseason with perfectly-drawn plays down the stretch. Since acquiring Garnett, Boston has never lost in the first round, and generally becomes more difficult to get rid of than a bad case of dandruff once the playoffs arrive.
But still: Expecting the Celtics to make a long run this season because that's how it worked in the past would feel kind of like believing a Shawshank Redemption sequel would be awesome. . . despite Morgan Freeman being 75 years old (and dealing with foot inflammation) while Andy Dufresne gets played by, I don't know, Keanu Reeves, since Tim Robbins is rehabbing from a torn ACL. (Sorry, Avery Bradley, you're actually better than Keanu.)
Even if inserting Jeff Green into the starting lineup gives Boston a chance to pose serious matchup difficulties to just about any potential opponent, we've never seen what this current crew can do. Which brings me to potential Celtics fan mentality No. 2:
2. Does anybody have a friggin' idea what these guys can actually do?
The expected Celtics starting lineup has played 38 minutes as a unit all season -- or in other words, 10 minutes fewer than a single full game. Garnett's health is an unknown; he's played pretty well since suffering foot inflammation, but used a walking boot coming out of the locker room a week ago and has appeared in just three games since March 22. Boston's shown the ability to play elite defense with both Bradley and Garnett healthy, but it was for a relatively small sample size sandwiched by two long portions of suckitude.
Bradley hasn't played point guard once in the playoffs, but he'll start at that position Saturday in the series opener. Jordan Crawford, Terrence Williams and Chris Wilcox, who all could see time in Boston's playoff rotation, have never played a single playoff minute. Shavlik Randolph, another possible rotation guy, has played four total. Boston prevailed in just five of its final 16 games, but we can't really judge that selection of contests because Garnett sat most of the time, Paul Pierce missed a few games himself and the Celtics clearly shelved winning as a priority long before the regular season ended.
Meanwhile, we have to try estimating the validity of resurgences by Green and Brandon Bass. Can both continue playing so well in the playoffs? Starting alongside both Garnett and Pierce should make things easier, but again, everything about the new starting lineup remains, well, new. We just don't know.
Two more thoughts of concern: Rondo, who's obviously injured, has been Boston's biggest single postseason advantage since 2009. And an at least somewhat hobbled Garnett can't possibly dominate the playoffs like he did last year, can he?
I'm this far into discussing why predicting Boston's playoff fate should be tough and I haven't yet mentioned the curiously up-and-down reserve guards, Jason Terry and Courtney Lee.
Yes, trying to guess how the Celtics will perform is like trying to pinpoint which card the dealer will turn over next.
There's one other line of thinking, though, and it's also understandable:
3. The Celtics have no chance of outlasting the Knicks.
Point differential is generally considered one of the best indicators of playoff success; Boston actually got outscored by opponents over the entire season. Check ESPN's predictions. Or those by CBS Sports.
Did I tell you that Garnett was spotted wearing a walking boot last week? Or that Rondo won't return until next season? Or that Terry hasn't exhibited his usual scoring outbursts, nor his expected proclivity for connecting in the clutch? Or that the Celtics are playing Carmelo Anthony, the scoring champion averaging 33.1 points over his past 13 games? Or that New York, also mostly without its studly defensive center, still managed to finish the regular season by winning 16 of its past 18?
Despite all that, Rivers said earlier this week, “I don’t feel any different (than past years). We don’t call ourselves the underdog. You guys (the media) call us the underdog. So we don’t feel any different. We were an underdog seed last year, I think. I don’t even know. We were the fifth seed last year and throughout. So for us, we just keep rolling and show up.”
Yes, it's the playoffs now. Except in their own eyes, the Celtics are considered underdogs. Finally, after a regular season to forget, we'll get to see what they're all about.