If Belichick’s sordid history with drafting receivers is the result of something other than bad luck, taking two would up his odds of hitting one.
The Patriots avoided a major hit last week when Alfonzo Dennard’s prison sentence was suspended until after the season. But New England's attempt to plug the hole at wide receiver was thwarted when the Pittsburgh Steelers matched the offer sheet extended to Emmanuel Sanders.
That means the team now has one major hole to fill heading into this month's draft and a few other minor issues, such as cornerback depth, a pass rusher and a defensive tackle. Additional depth at safety and guard could also be areas worthy of consideration, though those needs are secondary.
So, logic suggests that the Patriots will target an outside receiver early in the draft, even though Bill Belichick historically has had bad luck when drafting the position (since 2002, the Patriots have drafted eight receivers, with only Julian Edelman, a former college quarterback and late-round gamble, having any type of meaningful impact on offense).
But will he pull the trigger in the first round? That’s questionable. Belichick has never drafted a receiver in that early and this may not be the year to start. In fact, the Patriots may be better served by trading out of the first round– especially if the plan is, indeed, to select a receiver.
If someone like Tennessee’s Justin Hunter is still available when the Pats come on the board for the 29th pick it may be worth rolling the dice. Otherwise, this year’s draft class is considered to be one of the deepest in years, with many of the players expected to be available in the second round comparable to those projected to be selected on the first night.
If the Patriots drop down, they could double up on receivers, giving them a better chance of one, if not both, emerging as hoped. It may seem like overkill, but this course of action wouldn’t be out of character for the Patriots.
Drafting running backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley in consecutive rounds harvested positive results in 2011, and a similar flood approach has been used in recent years to fill other roster spots – most recently at wide receiver last season and again across the defensive line in 2011.
Considering the difficulties the team has had with filling the outside receiver spots the last few years, taking full advantage of a deep draft may be New England’s best chance at achieving long-term stability. Another benefit is that if one of the guys turns out to be a late bloomer, which was the case with Vereen, the team could bring him along at his own pace.
And the hidden benefit: if Belichick’s sordid history with drafting receivers is the result of something other than bad luck, taking two would up his odds of hitting on one.