A set of numbers suggests that the Patriots were the definition of average against the pass in 2012.
Often times, in sports, perception doesn't mesh with reality.
Some moments register while others fade away. The big failures standout more than the minor successes, coloring our perceptions in hues that were never intended to exist. We see what we see and opinions are formed.
Even though I've long been a proponent of advanced statistics in all sports, I recently stumbled upon a set of numbers that challenged my beliefs when going through some stats from the 2012 NFL season.
My initial response was to react like those opposed to achieving a higher understanding of sports through the study of numbers. Which is to say I wanted to pull out an abacus, knock some sense into the guys holding calculators and tell them to watch the games.
But there it was and I couldn't find a way to dispute it. In terms of defensive passer rating, the New England Patriots ranked 17th in the league with a score of 86.92.
That means, more or less, that the Patriots were the definition of league average.
It's hard to accept that number. All we remember is the Patriots giving up 74 passing plays of 20 or more yards last season, a statistic that takes the form of Russell Wilson throwing bomb after bomb on New England in our memories.
Those plays matter – the Patriots gave up 4,342 passing yards last season, the fourth highest mark in the league – but the edges of the image also have to be inspected to properly evaluate what you're looking at. That's what that number -- 86.92 -- is really telling us.
When you scan the edges, the big thing that stands out, which should come as no surprise, is the 20 interceptions New England recorded (20) last season. Everything else – yards per attempt, touchdowns, completion percentage – rank somewhere in the middle of the pack or bottom-third of the league.
What this tells us is that the defense was highly dependent or creating turnovers and, when weighed with the other factors, that figure allowed the passing defense to grade out as league average. One may argue that there was element of luck, which may be true, but New England has picked off 20 or more passes in each of the last three seasons. That trend should continue moving forward.
That's encouraging. If the Patriots can keep up the interceptions and slight improvements in a few other categories, they should push closer to the top third of the league in 2013. Last season's trade for Aqib Talib may have put a few of the pieces needed to complete the transformation in place.
The move allowed New England to move Devin McCourty to safety and put Kyle Arrington in the slot, where they both excelled. In six games with that alignment on the field, New England allowed 261 passing yards per game. In 10 games without Talib, that figure jumped to 278.
While that only equates to an improvement of 256 yards over the course of a season, having the group together for a full offseason should foster improvement, as should the addition of safety Adrian Wilson.
That alone won't be enough. The pass rush needs to improve and produce more consistent results to help the defense get to the next level.
Internally, having defensive end Chandler Jones healthy throughout the year would help. And depending on what they are capable of, CFL imports Armond Armstead and Jason Vega could help improve the pass rush.
The Patriots aren't there yet. But with a few tweaks, they could arrive at respectability sooner than expected.
It may even happen before anyone notices.