There is a nightmare scenario where UMass could finish tenth in the league if it loses Saturday.
Let's update the Atlantic 10 Tournament outlook with one game to play in the regular season.
1. Saint Louis 12-3 (22-6)
2. VCU 12-3 (24-6)
3. La Salle 11-4 (21-7)
4. Temple 10-5 (22-8)
5. Butler 10-5 (22-7)
6. Xavier 9-6 (17-13)
7. UMass 8-7 (18-9)
8. St. Joseph's 8-7 (17-11)
9. Dayton 7-8 (17-12)
10. Richmond 7-8 (17-13)
11. St. Bonaventure 7-8 (14-14)
12. Charlotte 7-8 (19-10)
13. George Washington 6-9 (12-16)
14. Rhode Island 3-12 (8-20)
15. Fordham 2-13 (6-24)
16. Duquesne 1-14 (8-21)
Saturday's Games
La Salle at Saint Louis
Dayton at George Washington
UMass at Rhode Island
Fordham at St. Bonaventure
Duquesne at Richmond
Xavier at Butler
St. Joseph's at Charlotte
Sunday's Game
VCU at Temple
If the Minutemen win on Saturday, they finish sixth if Butler beats Xavier, or seventh if the Musketeers come out on top. Though St. Joseph's also could finish 9-7, the Minutemen are guaranteed to be ahead of the Hawks in all 9-7 tiebreaker scenarios.
If the Minutemen lose on Saturday, things get murky. The Minutemen could finish as high as seventh (where they sit now) or as low as tenth (if the nightmare scenario occurs).
Until then, let's take a look at the rest of the league.
• If Saint Louis beats La Salle on Saturday, it wins the league title.
• If La Salle wins Saturday and VCU wins Sunday, VCU wins the league title, La Salle is No. 2 and Saint Louis is No. 3.
• If La Salle wins Saturday and VCU loses, La Salle wins the league title, Saint Louis is No. 2 and VCU is No. 3.
• If Temple, Butler and La Salle all end up 11-5, the Owls would own the No. 3 seed, La Salle the No. 4 and Butler the No. 5.
• UMass holds the simple head-to-head tiebreaker over St. Joseph's.
• The four teams tied at 7-8 break down as follows:
>Dayton (2-1 against tied teams, owns head-to-head over Richmond)
>Richmond (2-1 against tied teams, loses head-to-head to Dayton)
>St. Bonaventure (1-2 against tied teams)
>Charlotte (0-3 against tied teams)
• George Washington is still very much alive. If the Colonials beat Dayton, they would be in — owning head-to-head tiebreakers over Dayton, St. Bonaventure and Charlotte. If Dayton, George Washington and Richmond (the only team in the 7-9 range the Colonials don't own the tiebreaker over) were to end up tied, the Flyers would be on the inside out.
>All three would be 1-1 against each other, meaning the tiebreaker would be record against highest seeds.
>All three are 0-for against Saint Louis and La Salle, but Richmond's win 1-1 record against VCU would give the Spiders the 11 spot regardless of what happens at the top. Then, by nature of its win over Dayton on Saturday to create this scenario, George Washington would be in the No. 12 slot.