With up to four teams leaving the Atlantic 10 for the new Big East, what does it all mean for UMass?
Will UMass call a new conference home in the coming years?
We knew it was coming sooner or later, but conference realignment has finally hit home for the University of Massachusetts.
The new “Big East” will reportedly be announced as soon as next week, with the so-called “Catholic Seven” — DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence and Villanova — joining with Butler and Xavier from the Atlantic 10 to form the new league next season.
Dayton and Saint Louis are also in the mix.
That’s the part that everyone seems to agree on. What happens beyond that is another story.
ESPN says there’s a mystery tenth team for next season. Sports Illustrated says that team is likely Creighton. CBS says the league might stop at nine and wait for the 2014-15 season to add Creighton, Dayton and Saint Louis.
In mid-December, I laid out three potential options for UMass going forward. The first was to stay put, the second was to try and join the new league, the third was to align itself with the remnants of the Big East.
Option number two has been eliminated. If UMass was in the mix for the new league, there would be some indication of it by now.
So with a little more information, let’s revisit options one and three.
Stay in the Atlantic 10, keep football in the MAC
Let’s operate under the premise that Butler, Xavier, Dayton and Saint Louis all leave the league to begin the 2014-15 season. Charlotte and Temple are already headed elsewhere after this year. That leaves the following:
Fordham
Duquesne
George Washington
La Salle
Richmond
St. Joseph’s
St. Bonaventure
Rhode Island
VCU
UMass
That is the Atlantic 10 only in the sense that there are ten teams and they are all on the Atlantic coast. The guts of the conference are gone.
Remember, the lifeblood of a non-football league is NCAA Tournament units, which are how the bulging pockets in Indianapolis are emptied when the tournament is over. (If you need a refresher on what a “unit” is, read this story).
Of the 33 NCAA Tournament units currently owned by the Atlantic 10, the teams on this list earned just seven of them.
The 33 units, which carry a value of over $37 Million paid out over the next six years, would stay with the Atlantic 10, but looking at future earning power, only VCU can be seen as a legitimate breadwinner — the Rams have earned 10 units in the past six years, but those belong to the Colonial Athletic Association.
If the Atlantic 10 looked to expand to replace what it loses, the pickings are very slim, with the best option probably being to look to the CAA again — perhaps at non-football schools like George Mason or Drexel.
Northeastern Athletic Director Peter Roby told me last month that he was very happy in the CAA, but perhaps the Huskies could fall under consideration as well.
Regardless, those schools are all steps — er, leaps — down from the likes of Xavier, Dayton and Saint Louis.
From a UMass financial standpoint, let’s assume the A-10 stays at ten. Let’s also assume that its current television deal stays in place — admittedly somewhat unrealistic, but let’s keep it simple for the moment.
$37 million in NCAA money breaks down to $3.7 Million per school over the next six years — or $616,000 per year. Add to that the media rights for the Atlantic 10 — which would come out to $500,000 per year per school.
In the MAC, UMass football’s share of the television money will be in the neighborhood of $100,000 per season if these figures are indeed correct.
Move to the Big East Remnants Whatever They Might Be Called
This league doesn’t have a name, though there have been plenty of both realistic and snarky suggestions.
I still like “Big Country,” regardless of the bad basketball memories it brings out of UMass fans, because it would give the league its own house band and theme song.
An invitation to the Big Country is not a certainty, but the prevailing rumors are that Tulsa and UMass are the schools in consideration for its final spot.
Let’s assume the Big Country offers UMass and it accepts.
It would look like this:
All Sports:
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Houston
Memphis
Temple
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Tulane
UConn
UMass
Football only:
East Carolina
Navy
This is a significantly better basketball option — Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis and Temple are all legitimate breadwinners in terms of units.
Plus, this league has agreed to a $18.5 Million per year contract with ESPN.
The old Big East split the money between football and basketball 70/30. Let’s assume that stays in place. UMass would stand to make roughly $1.63 Million per year in media rights money.
It’s still undetermined how much of the old Big East money the Big Country will get to keep, but consider this:
The old Big East owns $128 Million in NCAA Tournament units alone.
Of the $128 Million in units, $34.9 Million were earned by the Catholic Seven and $53.1 Million were earned by the four schools leaving for the ACC (Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse).
It is safe to assume some percentage of that pot will remain in the Big Country — another payday. Even if the Big Country let the Catholic Seven walk away with their share (unlikely, there will be lawyers will involved) that’s enough cash to make administrator’s eyes light up.
And we haven’t even begun to address what the Big Country would hold in exit fees from the old Big East — another topic for the lawyers to argue over.
The point is simple — from a revenue standpoint this is the better option for UMass.
But the arguments against joining this league remain the same as they did in December.
The first is stability.
The Big Ten is rumored to be expanding, and is looking at the ACC (again). UConn and Cincinnati would likely be replacement targets for the ACC should that happen.
Is what remains without UConn and Cincinnati a significant enough upgrade to make it worth it for UMass to leave the A-10?
The second is cost. It costs money to leave the A-10. It costs even more to fly your swimming, tennis and baseball teams to New Orleans, Dallas and Houston for regular season games.
Of course, all of this is moot if the Big Country invites Tulsa instead.
There are some other more out-of-the-box options that might become available to UMass. One that was explored by Maroon Musket’s Bob McGovern is to join the MAC in all sports. There are more that we haven’t even thought of yet.
As always seems to be the case with the Great Realignment Soap Opera — stay tuned. The next twist is right around the corner.