A look at Welker's upcoming contract negotiations.
On the surface, there's no reason the New England Patriots should hesitate when it comes time to re-sign Wes Welker.
Open up the vault. The wideout continues to be among the NFL leaders in receptions each season and has become one of the most important pieces of New England's offense over the last five years.
Sure, he'll turn 32 this offseason, but recent evidence suggests he's immune to the aging process that has historically cut down receivers his age. He's good for at least another two solid seasons.
Beyond that, Welker's the rare receiver who has been able to earn quarterback Tom Brady's complete trust, which in turn has allowed the two to develop a level of chemistry only a few receivers have reached with Brady.
Over the last four seasons, Brady has thrown just five interceptions on passes intended for Welker – an impressive feat made even more incredible when you consider Welker is among the most targeted receivers in the NFL.
Brady threw three picks on passes intended for Brandon Lloyd and Julian Edelman in 2012 alone. And we all saw how out of sync the offense became early in the season with Edelman in the slot.
The Patriots could probably replace Welker with someone like St. Louis wide receiver Danny Amendola (assuming he's available in free agency), but replicating the results is likely impossible.
So just get it done, right? It may not be that simple. Here's a look at a few of the hurdles Welker may face in negotiations.
The cost: Welker would love to sign a multiyear deal that affords him both wealth and security. He campaigned for one last season, the negotiations at times turning contentious as the sides were unable to reach an agreement.
Welker ultimately signed a franchise tender that essentially paid him $9.5 million last season. If the Patriots choose to go that route again, it would come at a cost exceeding $11 million. While Welker may be invaluable to the offense, that price tag will likely be too rich for the Patriots to stomach.
So it looks like they'll be back at the negotiating table in the coming weeks. If history is any indication, these talks may not yield results. The Patriots offered Welker a two-year, $16 million deal during the 2011 season that was turned down. Every subsequent offer he received was lower in terms of average annual value.
It's doubtful New England is suddenly going to have a change of heart, which was reflected in the message owner Robert Kraft sent to Welker's representatives earlier this week.
"Like I said all along, it takes two sides to make a transaction, and then we have to manage the lawyers and the agents that they don't mess it up," Kraft said. "I think Wes wants to be with us, and we want him here, so it's just a matter of whether both sides can be intelligent."
In other words, Welker is going to have to agree to New England's terms or seek other employment.
His age: Wide receivers are supposed to fade after 30. To a certain degree, Welker has weathered that trend, remaining one of the more effective and consistent receivers in the league.
But there are signs he may be slipping a little bit. Welker had some issues with hanging onto the ball this season, dropping 15 of the 133 catchable passes thrown his direction. His drop rate of 11.28 was 10th highest in the league, according to ProFootballFocus.com.
Welker had drop rates of 9.63 in 2011, 4.65 in 2009 and 6.03 in 2008. He posted a rate exceeding 13 in 2010 while recovering from a torn ACL.
He has also steadily declined over the last few seasons in terms of yards generated versus the number of routes run. He averaged 2.99 yards per route in 2009, 2.58 in 2011 and 2.19 in 2012.
There are factors outside of Welker's control that likely caused some of those numbers to drop (the emergence of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski being one), but it still doesn't bode well for his case.
His actual value: It's hard to put a finger on what Welker is worth. He's clearly become an invaluable to the Patriots, but do other teams view him similarly?
This is an issue likely tripping up both sides on their way to the negotiating table. Welker may need to go out and test the market to set his value, but doing so could be a big risk for both sides.
What if the Patriots allow him to flirt with another team that steps up with a big offer? Will Welker come home with that information or feel slighted by New England's reluctance to stop him from bolting town?
On the flip side, Welker could lose all power by testing the market and coming back without a decent offer in hand.
The bottom line: Both sides need to be smart, as Kraft said. The Patriots need Welker as much as he needs them.
So, yes, just get it done.