New rules regarding free agents and draft pick compensation could have a major impact on potential free agent Jacoby Ellsbury next fall.
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Jacoby Ellsbury may find a more limited market for his services when he hits free agency next fall.
Conventional wisdom has suggested that once Ellsbury becomes a free agent, he will be as good as gone. Adding fuel to that fire is that Ellsbury is represented by agent Scott Boras, known for urging his players to avoid signing contract extensions in lieu of hitting the free agent market.
Many fans assume that if a player becomes a free agent and signs with another team, the team he leaves is left empty handed.
That's not entirely true, though.
As part of baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, a team can make an impending free agent a qualifying offer. The qualifying offer has to be a minimum dollar amount that is determined annually by averaging the salaries of the top 125 player salaries from the previous year.
The offer is generally not expected to be accepted by the potential free agent, but it sets the stage for the team that loses the free agent to receive some form of compensation.
That compensation comes in the form of a compensatory draft pick in the following amateur draft. The team that signs the free agent will also lose their first-round draft pick, provided that pick is not in the top 10.
Draft picks have become increasingly valuable to teams over the years.
The MLB Draft might not garner the same types of front-page headlines as the NFL and NBA Drafts, but to MLB general managers it is one of the most critical days of the year.
In the modern baseball era, with its sky-high annual salaries and high-profile free-agent signings, draft picks have become an even more important part of any team's ability to build a team and a strong minor league system.
With a few notable exceptions, draft picks don't make a ton of money. They are retained at fairly reasonable prices for a number of years; they have team options, arbitration years, and a daunting minor league system to traverse. All of that could eventually lead to a massive payday as a free agent.
Last Thursday, Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal wrote a column discussing the concerns that the Major League Players Union had regarding draft pick compensation and its impact on the free agent market. Specifically, current free agents such as outfielder Michael Bourne and starting pitcher Kyle Lohse.
Boston Red Sox player rep Andrew Miller admitted that compensatory draft picks are impacting the market for free agents.
"It's not an open market for these guys," said Miller. "Supposedly, as of a couple of weeks ago, Lohse didn't have a real offer on the table, and he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Somebody has to offer him. It's just that the compensation is so screwed up. ..."
While neither Bourne or Lohse has the MVP-caliber potential of Jacoby Ellsbury, both are proven major league players with solid resumes. Both players also remain unsigned with just two weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report for spring training.
The New York Mets have openly admitted that parting with a draft pick has been part of the reason for the team's reluctance to pursue Bourne. The Mets have even lobbied the league for an exception to the rule.
The team is not expected to be granted that exception.
Bourne and Lohse are both interesting cases, but Ellsbury could become a very interesting case next offseason.
Ellsbury has flashed potential to be one of baseball's best offensive players. He stole 70 bases in 2009 and in 2011 he finished second in the MVP voting. Those seasons were so good that plenty of teams would probably not blink at surrendering a top draft pick in exchange for Ellsbury's services.
Ellsbury's 2010 and 2012 seasons are going to impact his market value. Both were impacted by injuries. Ellsbury missed nearly the whole 2010 season with fractured ribs. In 2012, it was a partial shoulder separation that kept Ellsbury on the disabled list for over two months; once he returned he was a mere shadow of the five-tool player Red Sox fans remember from 2011.
It seems very likely that Ellsbury will start the 2013 season in Boston. If the Red Sox are in contention and Ellsbury is having a solid to spectacular season it seems likely that he will play out his contract in Boston and then opt for free agency when the 2013 season eventually ends.
So could the draft pick compensation rules impact Ellsbury next offseason? Of course they could.
The Red Sox would be fools to not make Ellsbury a qualifying offer. Could draft pick compensation create a more limited market for Ellsbury? If Ellsbury's 2013 season were spectacular and similar to his 2011 season then the threat of losing a draft pick would probably have minimal impact.
If Ellsbury's 2013 season is not phenomenal, some teams could shy away from him. He will be 30 when he hits the market -- far from over-the-hill, but not young either.
Ellsbury won't be cheap. Scott Boras managed to get 31-year old Jason Werth, who had never had a season close to Ellsbury's best, a seven-year, $126-million deal from the Washington Nationals following the 2010 season.
Former American League MVP Josh Hamilton, with a long checkered history of drug and alcohol abuse, got a five-year $125-million deal from the Los Angeles Angels this past December. Hamilton is already 31 years old and he suffered an uncharacteristic second half batting slump in 2012.
Ellsbury has never had any issues with drugs or alcohol. He is a better player than Michael Bourne. Bourne certainly has as much speed as Ellsbury, but he's not the same type of power threat and his batting average is not as good either.
How Ellsbury performs in 2013 is going to have a major impact on how much money he makes for the remainder of his career. It is also going to impact the Red Sox willingness to re-sign him.
A more limited market for Ellsbury could drive his price down to a level where the Red Sox were willing to make him a long-term offer.
Adding even more intrigue to the upcoming season is that a team only receives a compensatory draft pick if the player who is a free agent was with that team for the entire season prior to his becoming a free agent.
That means that if the Red Sox choose to deal Ellsbury between Opening Day and the end of the 2013 season, the team he goes to won't be eligible for a compensatory pick.
That probably was a factor in the Red Sox' willingness to sign free agent Shane Victorino, who started the 2012 season in Philadelphia, but was traded to the Dodgers in late July. The Red Sox didn't need to part with a draft pick to ink Victorino. Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher and Adam LaRoche all would have cost the Red Sox money and a draft pick.
If you don't think qualifying offers are impacting free agency, here are some interesting numbers:
Nine free agents received, and declined qualifying offers last fall. Of those nine, four were signed by new teams and three ended up re-signing with their previous team. The latter three were Hiroki Kuroda, Adam LaRoche and David Ortiz. Two, Bourse and Lohse are still on the market.
Maybe Ellsbury leaving Boston is not quite as likely as previously thought?