2013 will be a pivotal year for Jon Lester, whose performance this season could make or break his career and the Red Sox' fortunes.
The 2013 season is going to be pivotal in the career path of Jon Lester.
The Boston Red Sox had a terrible 2012 season, and it was no coincidence that Jon Lester was bad as well.
Lester finished 9-14 with an earned run average of 4.82. His strikeouts per nine inning ratio of 7.3 was his lowest since 2008, capping a four-year decline from a career high of 10.0 in 2009, to 9.7 in 2010 and then 8.5 in 2011.
In spite of all the controversies during the 2012 season, Lester's decline was likely as large a reason for the team's struggles as anything that went on between Bobby Valentine and other players in the clubhouse.
The 2013 Red Sox will probably improve upon their 69-win total from 2012, but the extent of that improvement is going to be heavily dependent on the performance of their starting pitchers. And Jon Lester might be the most crucial of all of those starters.
Lester is only 29 years old. He's not at a point in his career where he can't be expected to bounce back from an off year.
Was 2012 just an off year, though? Was it just a blip on the radar of his career, or was it the culmination of a number of seasons that featured slight declines, coming to a head?
Strikeouts aren't always an indicator of a pitcher's ability to dominate or be effective. There have been plenty of successful pitchers who have not relied heavily on the strikeout to consistently get outs.
Jon Lester is not one of those pitchers, though. He arrived in the majors as a pitcher who accumulated strikeouts. In six minor league seasons he averaged 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. The big 6'4" lefty might not have ever touched 100 miles per hour on the radar gun, but he had the velocity and the make-up to get batters out by making them swing and miss.
The decline of that ability is an indicator of more than just mental struggles for Lester.
FanGraphs' Paul Swyden broke down Lester's struggles last July following what was the worst start of his career.
Lester allowed 11 earned runs and four home runs in just four innings of work against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 22. The 94-pitch disaster was the low-point of Lester's disappointing 2012 season.
Swyden pointed out a slight decline in Lester's velocity, specifically with regards to his fastball. It wasn't all about his fastball, though. Lester didn't get the same types of swings-and-misses on his cut fastball, and the decline in his fastball velocity didn't just impact that pitch, but it also negated how effective his change-up was as well.
More importantly Lester suffered from an increase in contact when throwing his sinker and his curveball. Swyden's piece was written following Lester's worst performance, but the year-end numbers all fell in line with the trends Swyden revealed at mid-season.
Daniel Bard also suffered from a decline in fastball velocity. That decline was just one of the problems that contributed to a lost season for Bard, who started the 2012 season as one the Red Sox brightest future pitching stars.
Is Lester's problem physical? Mental? A combination of both?
The hiring of his former pitching coach John Farrell may be an indicator of just how seriously the Red Sox are about Jon Lester's future in Boston.
Farrell doesn't arrive in Boston with a great managerial resume, but he does bring a history of extracting a high level of performance from Lester, Bard and Clay Buchholz.
If Lester can't return to the form he displayed from 2008 through 2011, then 2013 could be his last in Boston.
Lester will earn $11.625 million this season, but his contract for 2014 is a team-controlled option for $13 million. The Red Sox would probably pick up that option if Lester returns to his pre-2012 form this season.
If not, Lester could be heading into his final one in Boston, and it could be a rough one for the whole team as well.