A few things to keep an eye on Sunday night.
49ers (9-3-1) at Patriots (10-3)
When, where: Sunday at 8:20 p.m. (NBC) at Gillette Stadium
Forecast: Temperatures in the 30s, chance of rain
Last meeting: Jan. 2, 2005: Patriots 21, 49ers 7
Series history: Patriots lead 7-4
Spread: Patriots by 4.5
Five things to watch
Brady’s jersey: New England’s chances against the 49ers are dependent on how well the offensive line protects Tom Brady. If there are leaks across the line, and linebacker Aldon Smith (19.5 sacks) is in his face all night, the odds of picking apart San Francisco’s staunch defense will become a lot lower. The offensive line only gave up one sack against the Houston Texans last week, but there was a lot of pressure on Brady. A similar performance may not be good enough with better athletes dotting the 49ers defense. Look for the Patriots to use a lot of quick passes, screens and play-action attempts to help offset some of the aggressiveness.
Holstering the pistol: The 49ers bring an interesting twist this week with their pistol offense, or, as they call it, “Q”. In the set, the quarterback takes the snap a few steps closer than he would out of the shotgun with a running back lined up behind him. The set makes it harder to decipher what the offense’s intentions are, since the quarterback can quickly hand the ball off, run or fire off a pass. San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick used the formation to perfection last week against the Miami Dolphins when he took off for a 50-yard touchdown run. Coach Bill Belichick said this week that it will take a team effort to slow the attack down.
Weather: The Patriots haven’t play in anything that could be considered a cold game all season. That should change. With temperatures expected to be in the 30s and rain falling, which team best adjusts to the weather will become a key storyline during this game. Will the teams be forced to run more? Will the Patriots throw caution to the wind and stick to the air? The answers to those questions will impact the outcome of the game.
Coming to blows: The Patriots have to show up with the mentality that they’re entering a fight. The 49ers love to beat on teams and wear them out. That starts on defense, where big hits are the norm, and spills over onto offense where the San Francisco offensive line serves as the first line in a punishing ground attack. New England isn’t a finesse team, but they are yet to test their heart against a team like the 49ers.
Welker’s pursuit of history: Wes Welker enters the game five catches short of 100. If he reaches the mark, he’ll become the first player in NFL history to record five seasons with 100 or more catches.
Prediction: We underestimated the Patriots last week and took Houston. That isn’t going to happen again. The 49ers won’t make it easy on New England. The Patriots will have to fight and claw for every yard, but in the end there isn’t a defense in the NFL that can fully contain New England. The bottom line is that the 49ers won’t be able to keep pace. New England 23, San Francisco 20.