It's a battle between two AFC titans.
Texans (11-1) at Patriots (9-3)
When, where: Monday at 8:30 p.m. (ESPN) at Gillette Stadium
Forecast: Temperatures in the 40s, chance of rain
Last meeting: Jan. 3, 2010: Texans 34, Patriots 27
Series history: Patriots lead 2-1
Spread: Patriots by 3.5
Five things to watch
Punt returner: With Julian Edelman out for the season with a foot injury, New England has to find a new man to return punts. Wes Welker would seem a likely candidate, but the Patriots may not want to risk injury with the wide receiver position already dangerously thin. Brandon Bolden returned some punts during the preseason and could slide back into that role, while Donte' Stallworth and Danny Woodhead are also possible candidates.
Stopping play-action: The Patriots marveled all week at how balanced Houston is on offense, and about how that balance makes it extremely difficult to defend the Texans' play-action passes. New England's linebackers and defensive backs are going to have to be extremely disciplined and careful not to bite too hard on those plays. Houston has the ability to turn the smallest mistake into a huge gain, as it's shown in recent weeks.
Stopping Watt: There has been endless chatter this week about J.J. Watt, and it's all been justified. The Houston defensive end has been an unstoppable force this season with 16.5 sacks and 15 passes defensed. Stopping him isn't going to be an easy task. New England players noted he often moves around the line, and it typically takes a pair of men to stop him – not always available since Houston likes to send five pass rushers after the quarterback.
Welker's pursuit: With 92 catches, Welker is on the brink of becoming the first player in NFL history with five 100-catch seasons. It would take a hefty haul for him to reach that figure against Houston, but with Texans slot corner Brice McCain out (foot), it could conceivably happen. Cornerback Johnathan Joseph is also battling a hamstring injury that could potentially keep him out of action, so things may slant favorably for the Patriots across this board.
Stallworth's involvement: With the stakes so high for this week's game, the newest addition to New England's roster has kind of been lost in the hoopla. Stallworth will likely serve as the third option at wide receiver behind Welker and Brandon Lloyd, but the player in that role has seen a fair number of opportunities. It will be interesting to see how Stallworth responds after sitting out the whole year to this point.
Prediction: This is the hardest pick of the season (until next week when the Patriots play San Francisco), and the hardest since we were forced to settle on Baltimore in Week 3 after much deliberation. This game carries the same kind of feeling. There are plenty of things that could break right for New England, but just as many things could easily go wrong. While there's been improvement in recent weeks, it's unknown if those Patriots strides were a result of the level of competition or due to actual growth – can't justify putting faith in something that may or may not be real. So, with little conviction behind this one, the pick is Houston. Texans 28, Patriots 24