Whjat teams if any will trade real talent for a one-year gamble on Ellsbury?
The Red Sox would likely trade Jacoby Ellsbury for the proper return, but the real question is how much of a market he would attract on a one-year rental.
When discussing a potential trade of Jacoby Ellsbury, people always ask whether the Red Sox would do it.
The better and rarely asked question is whether any other team will do it. It is that, far more than Ben Cherington's mood on the subject or the arrival of Shane Victorino, which will determine whether Ellsbury stays or goes.
Red Sox fans and often media make the mistake of overestimating Sox players. Remember Kevin Youkilis?
Last spring, the blogs and airwaves were filled with dreamy trade scenarios. Trade Youkilis for a front-line starting pitcher or a slugging outfielder, it was said – or maybe both.
The Red Sox wound up with a minor league pitcher and a backup infielder, neither of which is still on the team. The baseball world saw Youkilis not as the beloved "Youk,'' but as what he was, a skilled two-position player who was physically worn down and showing signs of decline.
Ellsbury is a far different choice than Youkilis, but to the the other 29 teams, he is not the exciting, multitalented darling of the pink hats. He is a commodity, and a riskier one than Youkilis because the price will be much higher.
That is, unless the Red Sox practically give him away, which they have no reason or intention of doing.
Is he really a 32-home run guy, as he was in 2011? How many serious injuries does it take to label a guy high-risk?
If he is healthy, he will steal a ton of bases. That appeals more to some teams than others.
And as we all know, he is a client of agent Scott Boras and headed toward free agency after this season. Ellsbury will be looking for a long contract worth a boatload of money.
Given Boras' history, the team that had him last is probably the unlikeliest candidate to keep him. With all of this in mind, how many teams will line up to offer the type of talent to convince the Red Sox to trade?
That does not mean it can't happen. Texas is one potential landing spot.
If Josh Hamilton leaves, the Rangers need an outfielder. They have talent surpluses in some spots, notably shortstop, where Boston needs help.
They are an elite team that wants to stay there, and would consider a one-year commitment. The number of such teams willing to pony up valuable talent for a high-end, high-risk player like Ellsbury, though, might be more limited than we think – though of course, the Red Sox need to find only one.
Cherington said it's not Boston's intent to trade Ellsbury. That is not the same as saying they won't.
But I would be surprised, though not shocked, if Ellsbury were traded. The Red Sox would do it under the right conditions, but it takes two to make a deal.
That is the part people keep forgetting about. It will be the determining factor in whether Ellsbury is dealt, far more than whether the Red Sox have the inclination or not.