The Patriots can claim the division title with a victory.
New England Patriots (8-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
Where, when: Sun Life Stadium at 1 p.m. on CBS
Last time out: Dec. 24, 2011: Patriots 27, Dolphins 24
Series record: Dolphins lead, 50-43
Spread: Patriots by 8.5
Five things to watch:
Where's the rush: With rookie defensive end Chandler Jones sidelined with an ankle injury and Jermaine Cunning serving the first of a four-game suspension for failing a drug test, the Patriots will be without two of their top pass rushers. Who steps up? The likely choice will be veteran defensive end Trevor Scott, who was signed during the offseason as a free agent. Rookies Justin Francis and Jake Bequette could also see increased roles.
Running Reggie: The Patriots run defense has come up on some hard times after standing strong early in the season. That could be a problem with Reggie Bush on deck this week. The Dolphins running back likes to get outside and take off up the sidelines. Bush is on pace for more 1,000 yards and can also catch passes out of the backfield. A close comparable would be Buffalo's C.J. Spiller, who ran nine times for 70 yards and caught four passes for 61 yards against the Patriots on Nov. 11.
Exploiting advantages: Miami would have liked to use Richard Marshall to defend Wes Welker, but he's out of action with a back injury. That means that the Dolphins will likely use Jimmy Wilson as the first line of defense against Welker. That should be an easily winnable matchup and Welker could be in for a huge day. In fact, everyone could. The Dolphins are 26th in the NFL with 262 passing yards allowed per game.
Sebastian Vollmer vs. Cameron Wake: New England right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is on the shortlist for the All-Pro team, serving as one of the better blockers in the NFL, but he hasn't had to contend with a force like Wake this season. After missing Thursday's game against the Jets due to back and knee injuries, he'll be taxed with stopping a man who has 12 tackles and nearly 20 quarterback hits this season. Keeping Wake bottled up will be key for the Pats to take advantage of the holes in the secondary.
Pats vs. Miami run defense: Will the Patriots even attempt to get Stevan Ridley and the other running backs involved? Miami has a top-10 run defense (96.7 yards allowed per game), so coach Bill Belichick may decide to avoid dealing with those altogether and stick to the air.
Prediction: The makings of a trap game exist with Houston and San Francisco on the horizon, but the opportunity to wrap up the AFC East title should be enough to keep focus on the task at hand. Miami is heading in the right direction under first-year coach and Longmeadow native Joe Philbin, but his team doesn't have the talent to compete with Tom Brady and company. Patriots 41, Miami 24.