10 questions to ponder as you settle in for Thursday night's first round.
FILE- In this combo image made of file photos of Sept. 24, 2011, in Waco, Texas, top, and Jan. 2, 2012, in Glendale, Ariz., Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck (12) drop back to throw at their NCAA college football games. The NFL draft begins Thursday, April, 26, 2012, with the first round and runs through Saturday. The first two picks will be quarterbacks: Luck will go to the Indianapolis Colts and Griffin is expected to go to the Washington Redskins. (AP Photo/Rod Aydelotte, Paul Connors, Files)NEW YORK — Finally, the NFL draft is upon us. The first 32 picks will be made Thursday night. We know Andrew Luck will be No. 1. We know Robert Griffin III will be No. 2. But there is so much we don’t know.
“The draft is a crazy process,” Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill said Wednesday during a media session. “Nothing’s a sure thing this year except the first or second pick. Even if I end up slipping, I just want to go to the right fit.”
Here are 10 questions to ponder as you settle in for Thursday night’s first round:
1. Will the Vikings take USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3?
The intrigue begins with the third pick, after Luck (No. 1, Colts) and Griffin (No. 2, Redskins) are taken. This draft becomes wildly unpredictable if the Vikings bypass Kalil for Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon or LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. Or, if a team looking to get Blackmon or Alabama running back Trent Richardson trades up to No. 3.
If Kalil does not go No. 3, he could drop as far as No. 10 to the Bills. Kalil’s heart will be beating fast, waiting for his phone to ring once the Vikings are on the clock.
“The commissioner (Roger Goodell) made me a little nervous,”’ Kalil said. “He said you’ll be back in the green room for an hour, but it will seem like five days. I’ll be sweating up a storm.”
2. Can the Browns put together a great draft with their NFL-high 13 picks?
The Browns have gone four straight seasons with five wins or fewer. They have three of the first 40 picks (No. 4, No. 22, No. 37). This draft needs to be a turning point for the franchise. Every other team in the AFC North made the playoffs last season, and the Browns’ offense was terrible. If Colt McCoy is still the starting quarterback in Week 1, he needs to play better—but he also needs more weapons. That’s why it makes plenty of sense for the Browns to take Richardson at No. 4. But no matter what the Browns do, they need to get this draft right.
3. Where will Tannehill be drafted?
Speculation ranges widely about Tannehill, rated the third best quarterback in the draft. He could be a top-10 pick or he could fall out of the top 20. The Dolphins (No. 8) appear to be Tannehill’s most likely landing spot. But the Browns (No. 4) have to be at least slightly intrigued by Tannehill. The Chiefs (No. 11) are another possibility for Tannehill, as are the Seahawks (No. 12). If an interested team wants to trade up to No. 7, the Jaguars hold that pick and would consider moving down. But that seems unlikely.
If Tannehill falls past the Dolphins, it could be a long fall. Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman coached Tannehill at Texas A&M. So if Sherman can’t convince the Dolphins to take Tannehill, that’s a red flag that Tannehill is not ready to make an immediate impact. He had only 19 starts at quarterback in college. Is that enough of a resume to be a top-10 pick? We’re about to find out.
4. Could a fourth quarterback crack the first round?
If that happens, it will be Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State. There is a school of thought that the Browns will draft Richardson or Blackmon at No. 4 and then take Weeden at No. 22. But if the Browns don’t take Weeden in the first round, he might still be around for them in the second round at No. 37.
5. Whose stock is rising into possible top-10 territory?
Here are three possibilities—Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd, South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore and Alabama safety Mark Barron. Floyd could be a nice weapon for the Rams and quarterback Sam Bradford with the No. 6 pick. Gilmore could strengthen the Jaguars’ secondary at No. 7 while Barron is by far and away the best safety in the draft. If Barron is not a top-10 pick, no way he gets past the Jets at No. 16.
6. Who should be a little worried Thursday night?
Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe. In a draft that is deep at his position, some scouts are worried about Poe’s inconsistency.
“I’ve been doing all these mocks, and he kept getting into the mid-20s for me,” NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said. “That might be his real value. He’s got so much upside, but he’s also got significant downside. He’s a boom-or-bust guy. His tape is really average. His ability is extraordinary.”
7. Should we expect a few trades in the first round?
There may not be many, if any. The Redskins already pulled off the big deal, trading up to No. 2 for their shot at Griffin. Teams in the middle of the first round may be willing to trade up to No. 10 or 11 to get Barron, who could be a target for the Cowboys (No. 14), Eagles (No. 15) and Jets (No. 16).
“A lot of teams want to trade down, but not a whole lot of teams are looking to trade up,” Mayock said. “I think where things heat up a little bit is (between) No. 11 and No. 20.”
8. Will Richardson be the only first-round running back?
He could be. It’s hard to see another running back going in the top 20. If another goes in the first round, it could be Boise State’s Doug Martin. Maybe the Lions (No. 23) think about adding Martin to take some pressure off quarterback Matthew Stafford. But with so many teams feeling they can get a quality running back later in the draft, the first round is becoming rare territory for runners. This draft will be another example.
9. When will North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins hear is name called?
He’s a player with top-15 talent, but his off-field baggage has really hurt him. Will a team take a chance on Jenkins in the first round, knowing that he’s a risk but gambling for the reward of a talented cover corner? Or will his past send Jenkins tumbling into the second round?
“I love his tape,” Mayock said. “He’s as natural a corner as there is in the draft. But there’s a long litany of issues off the field. I don’t see it happening in the first round.”
10. Which small-college players will come off the board early?
Several small-college prospects have second-round potential, including Montana cornerback Trumaine Johnson, Midwestern State guard Amini Silatolu and Appalachian State wide receiver Brian Quick.